News

Foreign exchange news -- will the US dollar continue to strengthen for three months? Expert: the federal funds rate will reach 3% in Q1 next year

发布时间:2022-08-25 浏览:599


Federal Reserve officials recently took turns to make hawkish statements, encouraging the dollar index to jump to a two-year high.

Foreign exchange insiders generally predict that as long as the Fed continues to raise interest rates and shrink its watch, the dollar is expected to remain strong.

Reuters reported on the 7th that a survey of 53 foreign exchange strategists found that more than two-thirds (37 in total) believed that a strong dollar could last for at least another three months,

Seventeen of them thought it would be more than six months. Thirteen respondents believed that the strengthening time of the US dollar was less than March, and the remaining three believed that the rally had ended.

Data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on April 1 showed that the net dollar excess of speculators rose to an 11 week high last week.

Chris Turner, head of global market research at ing, said that the Fed was actively tightening monetary policy this year (2022),

It is predicted that the federal funds rate may rise by 3% in Q1 next year, but the Fed may have to cut interest rates in Q4 next year.

He believes that the dollar's rise should be sustained for most of this year, and it may not weaken until next spring to summer.

The moneydj iquote quotation showed that the ice dollar index (DXY), which tracks the exchange rate of the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies, ended up 0.16% on the 6th

It closed at 99.63 points, a new closing high since May 22, 2020. The US dollar index has risen 3.81% year to date and has jumped 7.89% in the past year.

The Fed recently vowed to actively tighten monetary policy to fight inflation. According to the newly released records, Fed officials discussed in March that they would actively shrink their watch from May,

The balance sheet will be reduced by $95billion every month. The record also strongly suggests that the Fed's single interest rate hike in the future may expand to two yards (50 basis points).

Lael Brainard, the dove leaning director of the Fed, hinted on the 5th that the central bank might take a more active way to tighten money,

The "rapid" reduction of the central bank's balance sheet of nearly $9 trillion will begin as soon as may.